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| User Info | AIG Rescued With Fed-Backed "Bridge" Loan? in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archi....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-09-16 20:28:08
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Maple Posts: 4091 Incept: 2007-09-03 
Southern California
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.
Last modified:
2008-09-16 21:17:50 by maple
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3atatime Posts: 90 Incept: 2007-08-01
Texas
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Thanks. But isn't Chairman Mao Cox going to again prevent shorting financials (this time all financials)?
2008-09-16 20:32:43
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Franjime Posts: 935 Incept: 2008-03-30
DFW
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3atatime. Naked shorting only. And the market makers were exempted anyway. 2008-09-16 20:34:36
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No-limit Posts: 83 Incept: 2008-08-04 Savannah River
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Gen, I realize the medium to long term implications will still be the same (i.e. we're screwed), but would the No-Short Selling rule which will surely be used as the next bit of ammo actually do anything to prevent what you've written about?
---------- "An excess of idiots and a shortage of capital." -Mliu_01 2008-09-16 20:35:02
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Ursamajor Posts: 318 Incept: 2008-01-23 The Empire State
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You nailed it again, Gen.
2008-09-16 20:35:04
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Koolaid Posts: 3022 Incept: 2007-07-23
Atlanta
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Exactly. In Soviet Amerika bear raids you.
2008-09-16 20:36:05
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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No-Limit - nope. They'll just PUT it to death.
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-09-16 20:36:39
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Junkyard Posts: 5022 Incept: 2007-11-06
NZ: land of the damned
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Thanks. No CDS written by LEH?
---------- It's the people in power having to admit that they know ... But you don't say it... It's a conglomarate. If one of them betrays the principles of the accrual of money and power, the others betray him. 2008-09-16 20:39:54
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Lehman is already dead and "event"ed.
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-09-16 20:40:28
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Jrfar005 Posts: 182 Incept: 2008-05-14 
Northeast
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Karl, the only problem with your thesis is that most hedge funds prime broker with GS, JPM, and MS....amongst other IBs and banks. These prime brokers see the funds positions individually and as a group. I think it would be difficult for a group of funds to gang up against say GS for this reason. In addition a short selling rule would enable GS to just not allow their own clients to short GS stock.. A fund could conceivably move their prime broker to and independant, but then they may have an issue locating stock to short........Anyway I hope I am wrong and that you call BS on me cuz I want to see these A holes go down.
2008-09-16 20:40:52
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Openwater747 Posts: 1179 Incept: 2007-08-22
Panglossian Paradise
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no indy will be as price competetive a p.b. as GS, et al.
2008-09-16 20:42:25
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Templar223 Posts: 364 Incept: 2008-04-28
Champaign, IL
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Good analysis. But what happens when .gov doesn't bail one of the next victims out? This is bad news because even though AIG is getting this infusion, I'm skeptical they are going to get religion in their business dealings. In the end, these asshats at the fed are going to BK the nation. John 2008-09-16 20:42:33
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Starbork Posts: 231 Incept: 2007-10-23
San Francisco, CA
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Sorry for the noob question, but may be helpful to others so: what's the quickest way to find out if an investment has CDS exposure? I presume that would be any financial company, but do any other types of firms write these as well? 2008-09-16 20:42:33
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Ursamajor Posts: 318 Incept: 2008-01-23 The Empire State
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If they're willing to go this far what's to stop them from dictating a no-downgrade policy to the ratings agencies? Temporarily, of course.
2008-09-16 20:43:14
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Genesis Posts: 66462 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Starbork - read the 10Qs and 10Ks.
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2008-09-16 20:44:15
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Jrfar005 Posts: 182 Incept: 2008-05-14
Northeast
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Some huge funds may be "self clearing" which may allow them greater leway as long as they could borrow stock from a independent stock loan dealer
2008-09-16 20:44:30
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Jstanley01 Posts: 2332 Incept: 2008-07-30
San Antonio, Texas
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So you're saying that our government (hand over heart) has gone from funding a bridge to nowhere, to funding a bridge off a cliff? Makes sense to me. ---------- Come on. It's just a ****ing casino. The markets have nothing to do with reality most of the times.. until they suddenly do... -- Peezdets 2008-09-16 20:48:00
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Adrenaline_junky Posts: 1578 Incept: 2007-09-14
Chicago
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Isn't AIG somewhat of a special case here in that it is not actually insolvent? I'm not seeing how this applies to the banks, which mostly ARE insolvent and therefore would have a much more difficult time arguing that a bridge loan is warranted. ---------- "A young healthy child well nursed, is, at a year old, a most delicious nourishing and wholesome food, whether stewed, roasted, baked, or boiled; and I make no doubt that it will equally serve in a fricassee, or a ragout." - Jonathan Swift from "A Modest Proposal" 2008-09-16 20:48:55
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Quik49 Posts: 2295 Incept: 2007-12-11
out yonderway
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Awesome Ticker and a Video taboot! many thanks!!!
---------- Potter's not selling, he's buying; 2008-09-16 20:54:22
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Koolaid Posts: 3022 Incept: 2007-07-23
Atlanta
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I think it should be clear that this part of the play has been totally scripted for a while. Do you *really* think that the ratings agencies would've downgraded AIG if the powers that be didn't want to do exactly what just happened? C'mon. The problem is that we're not privy to the script. All we can do is guess. It looks like they are pulling out all stops trying for a controlled unwind. One slip and...boom. 2008-09-16 21:17:06
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Ribeye Posts: 22 Incept: 2008-05-04
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Can someone please explain this 87 billion the NY Fed gave Lehman, i thought no money was thrown at Lehman ?? http://www.cnbc.com/id/26746448 2008-09-16 21:18:30
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Uncleoxidant Posts: 1575 Incept: 2007-07-10 Stumptown
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I don't get it. I mean, yeah, the idiots will rally the market tomorrow, but I just don't see how this can be bullish long term (even intermediate term). Also, now that the US gov is in the insurance biz, if you're a competitor of AIG's does that mean you're now competing against the US Government? Aren't all of their competitors now going to want something done to at least give the appearance of a level playing field? ---------- Debt is slavery 2008-09-16 21:18:33
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Nanna Posts: 2143 Incept: 2008-01-20 NY State
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Quote:Sorry for the noob question, but may be helpful to others so: what's the quickest way to find out if an investment has CDS exposure? I presume that would be any financial company, but do any other types of firms write these as well? The web is thick, it's not just CDS exposure. For example, today CEG traded as low as $17 intraday because they have contract exposure to LEH. SPWR was down 10% earlier today as well, because LEH underwrote somewhat for them, and ESLR got slammed due to their banking relationship to LEH had debt on the hook as well as a banking deal (stock and converts) which was structured so as to facilitate a nifty long/short hedge fund strategy, a common event over the past several years with the incestuous relationship between investment bankers and hedge funds. What I'm saying is that a Texas utlity and 2 solar energy companies had a rather lousy day today because of inferred or actual relationsip with LEH as investment bank and nothing whatsoever to do with CDS per se. That puts the AIG thingy in to some perspective as well ... AIG was direct counterparty to pretty much everybody and you can only imagine the scale of derivative (pun intended) effects vis a vis what I just related in terms of LEH, which in scale terms was puny compared to AIG. N/just had to say Last modified:
2008-09-16 21:35:31 by nanna
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Tf_protege Posts: 1230 Incept: 2008-04-17 The Bulls are Back (sigh)!
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With what Gen said, there is plenty of tinfoil out there pointing to something more ominous. 76
---------- On 11/11/09, the S&P hit 1105 which was a 66 percent rally off of 666..When T/A does not work, Trade on Tin. --Just sayin... 2008-09-16 22:20:27
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